If you’re the commander of all NATO and US forces in Afghanistan trying to hold a discreet meeting with a former warlord who’s publicly expressed his opposition to the government your country’s Secretary of State helped put in place, and that same warlord dimes you out via his Facebook page, your response looks like this.
That posted on the 31st in response to TOLO’s breaking the story of the meeting thanks to Sayyaf’s crack media team posting the photo. Besides keeping his FB status updated (“In a relationship with the Americans…again!” <facepalm emoji>) Sayyaf’s been busy in July, since earlier in the month he’d met with everybody’s favorite once and future Afghan president:
Meanwhile, reports stated that former President Hamid Karzai – who was recently accused of trying to derail the government – also met with Sayyaf during Eid Days.
Meeting with a disgruntled former presidential candidate who holds no government office and thinks president Ghani’s only done one thing well (sidelining Sayyaf and his former mujahideen cohorts), on the heels of a visit by a former Afghan president who seems ok with toppling the current holder of the Arg throne should sit just fine with both Ghani and his CEO, Abdullah Abdullah.
A meeting between the commander of foreign forces in Afghanistan and one of the Afghan government’s most vocal critics can only ease any tensions between Washington and Kabul, and should make for smooth sailing in discussions about American troop withdrawals.
Coming as it does on the heels of reports of Mullah Omar’s death and delays in peace talks, what better way to send a clear message to the Taliban that the Americans stand with Ghani than meeting with someone who thinks the president sucks at his job. Someone with the kind of clout it would take to unseat the National Unity Government.
Islamabad should be thrilled: Sayyaf’s stance on the peace talks is that he’s all for talking to the Taliban. It’s just that he doesn’t really trust the Pakistanis. Seeing Campbell face to face with Sayyaf means cheetah flips all around in Pakistan.
Brace for the take
It’s true that Sayyaf and his ilk by necessity are part of the American calculus when it comes to Afghanistan. He has to be part of US considerations for the future of the country. If things break down past recovery, he’s going to be one of the key players picking up the pieces.
It’s also true that a meeting with Sayyaf could not have been more poorly timed. The troubling takeaway is a lack of confidence in Ghani. Dealings with non-state actors in Afghanistan are nothing new. Being blatant about it is.
The story of the US intervention is a series of least bad options. Working with people like Sayyaf is no exception. Bad: recruit a warlord if you’re an SF team leader with few options. Worse: recruit a warlord if you’re the HMFIC of foreign forces.
If the Americans are that far gone on Ghani, the national unity government’s days are numbered. A meeting like this is a clear indication that the US is already looking for other options. That they’re planning for a post-Ghani Afghanistan. And we’d all better get ready for Karzai redux.