Since there was an inauguration in Afghanistan today, figured I’d take a break from the usual Monday posting. But since I can’t seem to do anything but some variation on a listicle this early in the week, I’ll stick with the usual “5 Things” approach for this one. So here’s the five questions the new president and his national unity government need to answer pretty quickly.
How are you going to pay the bills?
Showing Afghans the money has to be first thing Ghani does in his first 100 days. Even with a surging insurgency looking to make ever larger gains across Afghanistan, security isn’t Ghani’s biggest problem. Afghanistan’s broke at the moment, in desperate need of cash infusions to pay its own employees. Which is a cruel fiscal joke given the billions that have been dumped into this country over the last decade and more. Until Ghani and his new administration can figure out a way to generate more revenue, they’ll have to rely on foreign funds purely for survival.
Do you think you can beat corruption?
Ghani now gets to run the telethon from hell: keep asking for money while the people manning the phones keep robbing him blind. Beating back corruption isn’t just a plank in Ghani’s platform, it’s crucial that he demonstrate progress in this area to the international community. Foreign dollars and investments are riding on his ability to make that progress, and if he can’t deliver, he’s going to be hard pressed to convince donors to keep giving.
When will you sit down with the Taliban?
You think Thanksgiving’s a mess at your house: Ghani still wants Karzai’s “brothers” to sit down and talk the peace. What’s always hamstrung this process in the past has been US interference in engaging the Taliban. Now that the Americans have a pliable government installed in Kabul once again, maybe now they’ll listen to Ghani and let him take the lead on this. Or he’ll put Dostum in charge of negotiations and that will make for interesting, if not tragic, viewing for all.
What’s your plan for Dostum?
It is important to continue the talks with the Taliban. If Dr. Ghani allows me, I am ready to directly contact Taliban and ask what they want? Who are they killing? If war was the solution, all the issues would have been resolved in the past 40 years. – Dostum
If Dostum keeps it up, one day he might be more Gandhi than Genghis Khan, if his latest statements are to believed. He’s volunteered his services to sit down with the Taliban. Which, given his propensity to go full genocide on any Taliban in his neighborhood, would be an interesting shift. Not sure that means we’ve seen the last of Dostum the Destroyer, but the rise of Dostum the Diplomat should make for interesting times.
How are you going to handle Abdullah?
Abdullah sharing power with Ghani’s almost as laughable as Roth touring with Hagar. There’s more than just ego at stake here: Abdullah still thinks he won. And a man with that kind of political clout with his feelings hurt is going to be Ghani’s biggest problem in his first 100 days. There were rumors that Abdullah wasn’t going to attend today’s inauguration, which underscores how hard it’s going to be for these two to work together. The first time Abdullah threatens to take his toys and go home on any issue will be the real test of this unity government.
Should be a piece of cake.